Wednesday, July 4, 2012

More Giants Lineup comments

For the previous post in this series, click here.

First of all, I found a bug in the stealing bases section of my lineup code.  I've re-run the simulations; new findings:

1) A random lineup of the giants players scores, on average, 4.06 runs/game.
2) The current Giants lineup scores, on average, 4.13 runs/game
3) The top lineup this time was: Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Melkey Cabrera, Pablo Sandoval, Gregor Blanco, Angel Pagan, Brandon Crawford, Ryan Theriot, Barry Zito, scoring 4.29 runs/game on average.
4) The old best lineup (with the buggy code) scored 4.22 runs/game on average.

So, it still looks like the Giants could get another ~.16 runs/game out of their lineup, translating to ~2.56 more wins in a season.

Also, I decided to see what effect stealing bases had on the runs scored by a lineup; the answer, essentially, was none: without allowing stolen bases a random lineup scored ~4.05 runs/game, just .01 less than with stolen bases.  So it looks like stealing bases is close to a wash (note that the Giants have pretty good base stealers this year in Blanco, Pagan, and Cabrera).

It occurs to me, though, that by using a half season of one team I have some sample size issues.  There are also some oddities surroundings pitchers (i.e. the high frequency of bunts, which my program only half accounts for).  So, I'll next look at many different AL teams.

FWIW, here were the ten best lineups, along with their average runs scored: [([Brandon Belt, Angel Pagan, Gregor Blanco, Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey, Melkey Cabrera, Brandon Crawford, Barry Zito, Ryan Theriot], 4.2150850000000002), ([Gregor Blanco, Melkey Cabrera, Pablo Sandoval, Brandon Belt, Angel Pagan, Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Ryan Theriot, Barry Zito], 4.2343450000000002), ([Gregor Blanco, Brandon Belt, Angel Pagan, Pablo Sandoval, Melkey Cabrera, Buster Posey, Ryan Theriot, Barry Zito, Brandon Crawford], 4.2404599999999997), ([Angel Pagan, Gregor Blanco, Brandon Belt, Pablo Sandoval, Melkey Cabrera, Brandon Crawford, Ryan Theriot, Buster Posey, Barry Zito], 4.2502000000000004), ([Gregor Blanco, Brandon Belt, Angel Pagan, Melkey Cabrera, Pablo Sandoval, Brandon Crawford, Ryan Theriot, Barry Zito, Buster Posey], 4.2520499999999997), ([Brandon Belt, Gregor Blanco, Angel Pagan, Melkey Cabrera, Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Theriot, Barry Zito, Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey], 4.2529050000000002), ([Gregor Blanco, Pablo Sandoval, Brandon Belt, Melkey Cabrera, Angel Pagan, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Ryan Theriot, Barry Zito], 4.2606700000000002), ([Buster Posey, Gregor Blanco, Brandon Belt, Pablo Sandoval, Melkey Cabrera, Angel Pagan, Ryan Theriot, Brandon Crawford, Barry Zito], 4.2787699999999997), ([Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Gregor Blanco, Pablo Sandoval, Melkey Cabrera, Angel Pagan, Ryan Theriot, Brandon Crawford, Barry Zito], 4.2844249999999997), ([Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Melkey Cabrera, Pablo Sandoval, Gregor Blanco, Angel Pagan, Brandon Crawford, Ryan Theriot, Barry Zito], 4.2864449999999996)].  Why are these lineups the best?  I'm not completely sure.  Thoughts?

1 comment:

  1. Posey first might have to do with double plays: his ground into double play rate is 17% this year; that effectively means he hits .295 normally, but .252 with a runner on first.

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